Will risks and financial vulnerabilities derail the modest recovery?

By Catherine L. Mann, OECD Chief Economist and Head of Economics Department Global growth is projected to pick up to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016 in our latest Interim Economic Outlook. The forecast modest recovery is supported by fiscal initiatives in major economies and broadly unchanged from the November … More Will risks and financial vulnerabilities derail the modest recovery?

Deploy effective fiscal initiatives and promote inclusive trade policies to escape from the low-growth trap

by Catherine L Mann, OECD Chief Economist and Head of OECD Economics Department For the last five years the global economy has been in a low-growth trap, with growth disappointingly low and stuck at around 3 per cent per year. Persistent growth shortfalls have weighed on future output expectations and thereby reduced current spending and … More Deploy effective fiscal initiatives and promote inclusive trade policies to escape from the low-growth trap

Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession

by Patrice Ollivaud, Economist, OECD Economics Department,  Pierre-Alain Pionnier, Head of Unit, OECD Statistics Directorate and Cyrille Schwellnus, Senior Economist, OECD Economics Department How was it possible not to see the Great Recession of 2008-09 coming? How could economic forecasters blindly ignore financial developments? These are typical questions asked by the media in the wake … More Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession

Global growth warning: weak trade, financial distortions

By Catherine L. Mann, OECD Chief Economist The global economy remains in a low-growth trap. In our latest Interim Economic Outlook global GDP growth is set to remain flat around 3% in 2016 and improve modestly to 3.2% in 2017. This is slightly lower than the June Economic Outlook forecast due to weaker conditions in advanced economies, … More Global growth warning: weak trade, financial distortions

Structural reforms for more inclusive growth in Greece

by Christian Daude, Senior Economist, Office of the Chief Economist, OECD Economics Department (former head of the Greek Desk) The Greek economy is turning around lately, but it remains in a deep depression. GDP has fallen by more than a quarter between 2007 and 2015, unemployment remains extremely high at 25 percent and anchored poverty – … More Structural reforms for more inclusive growth in Greece

The contribution of weak investment to the productivity slowdown

by Yvan Guillemette, OECD Economics Department Concerns around weak productivity growth are everywhere these days. As the latest OECD Economic Outlook notes, since the mid-2000s, productivity growth has been markedly lower than at any other time since the 1950s. In response, the OECD has just launched the Global Forum on Productivity, an initiative to foster … More The contribution of weak investment to the productivity slowdown

Central bank negative deposit rates and the banking sector

By Kei-Ichiro Inaba and Lukasz Rawdanowicz, Macroeconomic Policy Division, OECD Economics Department The ECB, the Bank of Japan and five other central banks in Europe have applied negative interest rates on commercial banks’ reserves. This additional monetary policy stimulus, following large asset purchases by central banks in some of these areas, should boost the economy and … More Central bank negative deposit rates and the banking sector

What is the scope for public investment to lift long-term growth ?

by  Annabelle Mourougane, Jarmila Botev, Jean-Marc Fournier, Nigel Pain and Elena Rusticelli, OECD Economics Department Long-term rates are low in OECD countries, particularly in Japan, France and Germany. This opens up fiscal space and can justify any public investment projects with a positive rate of return. At the same time, infrastructure needs are sizeable, especially as … More What is the scope for public investment to lift long-term growth ?

Policymakers: Act now to break out of the low-growth trap and deliver on our promises

By Catherine L. Mann, OECD Chief Economist Policymaking is at an important juncture. Without comprehensive, coherent and collective action, disappointing and sluggish growth will persist, making it increasingly difficult to make good on promises to current and future generations. Global growth has languished over the past eight years as OECD economies have struggled to average … More Policymakers: Act now to break out of the low-growth trap and deliver on our promises

OECD Economic Outlook urges policy action to promote productivity and equality

by Oliver Denk, OECD Economics Department The Special Chapter of the OECD Economic Outlook published today shows why the global economy remains in the doldrums. Since the mid-2000s, productivity growth has been markedly lower than at any other time since the 1950s. This matters as rising productivity lies at the heart of economic progress. The … More OECD Economic Outlook urges policy action to promote productivity and equality