The middle-income plateau: trap or springboard?

Rauf Gönenç and Vincent Koen, OECD Economics Department The overall slowdown and mixed growth performance of emerging market economies in the past 15 years (see chart) has revived angst about a so-called “middle-income trap”. While countries with lower incomes often do grow faster so as to close some of the gap with high income countries, they … More The middle-income plateau: trap or springboard?

Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained?

By Catherine L. Mann, OECD Chief Economist and Head of Economics Department Global growth is projected to increase to around 3.5% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018 from 3% in 2016 in our latest Interim Economic Outlook. The forecast has slightly improved since the OECD June 2017 Economic Outlook, with the upturn becoming more synchronised … More Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained?

Make trade work for all

By Catherine L. Mann, OECD Chief Economist and Head of Economics Department The special chapter of the June 2017 Economic Outlook calls for action to diagnose and respond to structural trends, focussing on globalisation.  International trade has been a powerful engine of global economic growth and convergence in living standards between countries. Despite these benefits, … More Make trade work for all

Global Economic Outlook: Better, but not good enough

By Catherine L. Mann, OECD Chief Economist and Head of Economics Department Global growth is projected to rise modestly from 3% in 2016 to just over 3½ per cent by 2018 in our latest Economic Outlook. The mood in the global economy has brightened during the past year, with confidence indicators and industrial production increasing, and … More Global Economic Outlook: Better, but not good enough

Will risks and financial vulnerabilities derail the modest recovery?

By Catherine L. Mann, OECD Chief Economist and Head of Economics Department Global growth is projected to pick up to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016 in our latest Interim Economic Outlook. The forecast modest recovery is supported by fiscal initiatives in major economies and broadly unchanged from the November … More Will risks and financial vulnerabilities derail the modest recovery?

Deploy effective fiscal initiatives and promote inclusive trade policies to escape from the low-growth trap

by Catherine L Mann, OECD Chief Economist and Head of OECD Economics Department For the last five years the global economy has been in a low-growth trap, with growth disappointingly low and stuck at around 3 per cent per year. Persistent growth shortfalls have weighed on future output expectations and thereby reduced current spending and … More Deploy effective fiscal initiatives and promote inclusive trade policies to escape from the low-growth trap

Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession

by Patrice Ollivaud, Economist, OECD Economics Department,  Pierre-Alain Pionnier, Head of Unit, OECD Statistics Directorate and Cyrille Schwellnus, Senior Economist, OECD Economics Department How was it possible not to see the Great Recession of 2008-09 coming? How could economic forecasters blindly ignore financial developments? These are typical questions asked by the media in the wake … More Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession

Global growth warning: weak trade, financial distortions

By Catherine L. Mann, OECD Chief Economist The global economy remains in a low-growth trap. In our latest Interim Economic Outlook global GDP growth is set to remain flat around 3% in 2016 and improve modestly to 3.2% in 2017. This is slightly lower than the June Economic Outlook forecast due to weaker conditions in advanced economies, … More Global growth warning: weak trade, financial distortions

Structural reforms for more inclusive growth in Greece

by Christian Daude, Senior Economist, Office of the Chief Economist, OECD Economics Department (former head of the Greek Desk) The Greek economy is turning around lately, but it remains in a deep depression. GDP has fallen by more than a quarter between 2007 and 2015, unemployment remains extremely high at 25 percent and anchored poverty – … More Structural reforms for more inclusive growth in Greece

The contribution of weak investment to the productivity slowdown

by Yvan Guillemette, OECD Economics Department Concerns around weak productivity growth are everywhere these days. As the latest OECD Economic Outlook notes, since the mid-2000s, productivity growth has been markedly lower than at any other time since the 1950s. In response, the OECD has just launched the Global Forum on Productivity, an initiative to foster … More The contribution of weak investment to the productivity slowdown